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用易信 将文章分享到朋友圈。<">&nbblog-="ck" iz-ng:ankrdx;-nk";ed-position 1en;}an > &n> /pa

<">&nbblog-="ck" iz-ng:ankrdx;-nk";ed-position 1en;}an >  上述变革的主要目的是帮助东盟实现“向心性”这一核心目标———发明这个词是为了强调,“内部凝聚力”如何能够既被用来推动经济发展,也能用来管理东盟与外部伙伴的关系。&n> /pa

<">&nbblog-="ck" iz-ng:ankrdx;-nk";ed-position 1en;}an >  <">&nbblog-="ck" iz-ng:ankrdx;-nk";ed-poswei .l: 6:hian >对于拟议中的东盟共同体的发展来说,一个很可能产生巨大影响的外部变数就是日益凸显的中国影响力。&n>中国现在是亚太地区的重要大国,而且在过去25年里大大加强了与东盟的关系。这两个因素使得北京具备了改变东盟一体化未来走向的巨大潜力。&n><">&nbblog-="ck" iz-ng:ankrdx;-nk";ed-position 1en;}an >  在经济方面,中国的整体影响可能主要是积极的。自从{he3年签署战略伙伴协议以来,中国与东盟国家的双边财政和商业关系迅速发展,过去十年间商品与服务的双向流动翻了6 倍多,在 <3年突破4亿美元。东盟与中国的发展与繁荣将高度取决于互惠互利经济伙伴关系的进一步发展,而双方无疑都充分意识到了这一点。&n><">&nbblog-="ck" iz-ng:ankrdx;-nk";ed-position 1en;}an >  在政治和安全领域,东盟对中国的看法则不确定得多,对于中国在东南亚的战略意图尤其如此。由于担心中国会利用“反介入/区域拒止”平台来限制进入南中国海,并建立由北京决定的区域秩序,东盟沿海国家可能会指望华盛顿作为该地区国家防御以及更广泛防御的终极保证人。&n> /pa

<">&nbblog-="ck" iz-ng:ankrdx;-nk";ed-position 1en;}an >  北京的软实力对东盟的社会和文化一体化也有重大影响,不过这种影响的程度难以确定。一方面,中国官方强调和平发展和共同的亚洲价值观,这似乎与东盟自己致力于稳定和团结的承诺充分吻合。另一方面,中国努力在外交上将自己塑造成一个不具威胁的大国。&n> /pa

<">&nbblog-="ck" iz-ng:ankrdx;-nk";ed-position 1en;}an >  要取得成功,东盟共同体还需要得到东南亚地区另一个主要大国———美国的大力支持。&n> /pa

<">&nbblog-="ck" iz-ng:ankrdx;-nk";ed-position 1en;}an >  华盛顿有三大理由来支持建立东盟共同体。首先,经济一体化将有助于加强它与东盟之间不断发展且十分重要的双边贸易和投资关系。其次,推动更加多边化的安全合作方式,将直接有助于责任分摊。第三,一个全面一体化的东盟将有助于制衡中国和印度,确保南中国海重要航道的畅通,也使得美国代表所参与的东亚重要论坛变得更加对称。&n> /pa

<">&nbblog-="ck" iz-ng:ankrdx;-nk";ed-position 1en;}an >  美国可以有多种方式帮助支持东盟共同体的制度建设。在经济上,它可以通过增加《跨太平洋战略经济伙伴协定》(TPP)的东盟成员,来深化区域一体化和巩固贸易自由化。在政治和安全方面,美国可以建议开展支持军事互操作性的共同努力,为东盟国防部长会议当前的审议注入内容。最后,美国也可以运用软实力来推动旨在让整个东盟民间社会充分参与的项目。&n> /pa

<">&nbblog-="ck" iz-ng:ankrdx;-nk";ed-position 1en;}an >  <">&nbblog-="ck" iz-ng:ankrdx;-nk";ed-poswei .l: 6:hian >虽然中国和美国都有能力影响东盟一体化进程,但能否巩固内部团结、实现“向心性”从而在亚洲新秩序中保持自己的重要地位,最终都将取决于东盟自己。&n>就这一点而言,不确定性仍然存在,因为在许多方面,东盟成员国仍继续奉行一致性、不干涉、非正式等古老原则,而这些原则已经形成了它们做事和经商的方式。&n><">&nbblog-="ck" iz-ng:ankrdx;-nk";ed-position 1en;}an >  如今已成立近60 年的东盟正处于一个重要关口,它要么会在未来的区域合作中处于主导地位,要么就会被边缘化,成为历史的残余。&n><">&nbblog-="ck" iz-ng:ankrdx;-nk";ed-position 1en;}an >  (本文摘编自 美国《国家利益》双月刊,作者:兰德公司高级政治学家彼得·乔克。) ">&n> /pa&nb targptc}">anllllllllllll<">&nb targa://e .bcmval"m &n>anllllllllllll<">&nb targnbc-0fwrc-0-40 ptcmt ptcmt-2">评论这张 ">&n>anllllllllll ">&n>anllllllll1/ clllo d clablog-="eValCode:abs"f targptc pmperfztagmmanllllllllll<">&nb targptc}">anllllllllllll<">&nb targnbc-0fwrc-0-40 ptcmi">anllllllllllllllamag-s/microasog&n>anllllllllllll<">&nb targnbc-0fwrc-0-40 ptcmtna转发至微博 ">&n>anllllllllll ">&n>anllllllll1/ clllollllllll1 cla targptc pmper">anllllllllll&nb targptc}">anllllllllllll<">&nb targnbc-0fwrc-0-40 ptcmi">anllllllllllllllamag-s/microasog&n>anllllllllllll<">&nb targnbc-0fwrc-0-40 ptcmtna转发至微博 ">&n>anllllllllll ">&n>anllllllll1/ clllo ank"clllll< cla targ001 > t clef.fcr fix"> ">anllllllllllanllllllllllanllllllllll1 cla targ/" ="nbw-iablog-="&et .lb3colotive;width:13colopage/align:24pxo-lanllllllllllll<">&nb targf.f7">"_bl(<">&nb lte$_">&niReadCou .">29 ">&n>) ">&n><">&nb targt;}rf.f7">| rel="anllllllllllll<">&nb targf.f7">评论(<">&nb lte$_">&niC.cmentCou .">0 ">&n>) ">&n>anllllllllll1/ clllollllllllllanllllllllllanllllllllll1 clablog-="&et .lb4ar{vtive;width:14ar{v-lanllllllllllll< cla targp24px rdif-lanllllllllllllll<">&nbblog-="eValCode:abs"f targp24px sep bep-las. f.f7">| rel="anllllllllllllll1 cla targayer gblog p24pxreanllllllllllllllll<">&nb lte$_"htexBtn_k"9px;=">itlret分享到t="_bl"f targayer ect.k"9px; fkbking)sim &n>anllllllllllllllll<">&nb lte$_"htexBtn_e{baweibo=">itlret分享到新浪微博"f targayer ect.e{bawb fkbking)sim &n>anllllllllllllllll<">&nb lte$_"htexBtn_qq=">itlret分享到QQ空间"f targayer ect.qqzdne fkbking)sim &n>anllllllllllllllll<">&nb lte$_"htexBtn_qqweibo=">itlret分享到腾讯微博"f targayer ect.qqweibo fkbking)sim &n>anllllllllllllllll< cla lte$_"htexBtn_weixin=">itlret分享到微信"f targayer ect.weixin fkbking)siman1 cla targhead2dimm-fix .f6"aanllll用微信 将文章分享到朋友圈。 fxtj <50420_12">anllll" cla targ iasimanllllllll

用易信 将文章分享到朋友圈。 ion="class="OFTER ayer page?> soguost <3 a2y_04nmanllllllllllllllll&n snyle="nk" iz-ng:ankrdx;-nk";ed-position 1en;}"lll>a&"><;nbsp; solddnbsp; solddnbsp; solddnbsp; 东南亚国家联盟(东盟)宣布,它计划在 <5年底之前建立一个涵盖经济、政治、安全和社会领域的全面一体化共同体。这样一个区域性组织将首次为东南亚国家提供一个政府间合作的单一体系,可以起草、实施、完善共同的政策和行动纲领。这将大大推动未来的积极主动规划、发展全面且制度化的“超国家”合作与治理。< ">&n>a</p>a<p blog-="nk" iz-ng:ankrdx;-nk";eointer-fixed:1 a{f;eointer-24px;1 a{f;etive;width:1 2; loat:l rgb(102,1 a2,1 a2); d-posfamily: 'Micros"9p Ya&et', Ta"trewtsimsuni"lll>a<">&n snyle="nk" iz-ng:ankrdx;-nk";ed-position 1en;}"lll>a  上述变革的主要目的是帮助东盟实现“向心性”这一核心目标———发明这个词是为了强调,“内部凝聚力”如何能够既被用来推动经济发展,也能用来管理东盟与外部伙伴的关系。< ">&n>a</p>a<p blog-="nk" iz-ng:ankrdx;-nk";eointer-fixed:1 a{f;eointer-24px;1 a{f;etive;width:1 2; loat:l rgb(102,1 a2,1 a2); d-posfamily: 'Micros"9p Ya&et', Ta"trewtsimsuni"lll>a<">&n snyle="nk" iz-ng:ankrdx;-nk";ed-posiize:1 en;}"lll>a  <">&n snyle="nk" iz-ng:ankrdx;-nk";ed-poswei .l: 6:hi"lll>a对于拟议中的东盟共同体的发展来说,一个很可能产生巨大影响的外部变数就是日益凸显的中国影响力。< ">&n>a中国现在是亚太地区的重要大国,而且在过去25年里大大加强了与东盟的关系。这两个因素使得北京具备了改变东盟一体化未来走向的巨大潜力。< ">&n>a< p>a<p blog-="nk" iz-ng:ankrdx;-nk";eointer-fixed:1 a{f;eointer-24px;1 a{f;etive;width:1 2; loat:l rgb(102,1 a2,1 a2); d-posfamily: 'Micros"9p Ya&et', Ta"trewtsimsuni"lll>a<">&n snyle="nk" iz-ng:ankrdx;-nk";ed-position 1en;}"lll>a  在经济方面,中国的整体影响可能主要是积极的。自从{he3年签署战略伙伴协议以来,中国与东盟国家的双边财政和商业关系迅速发展,过去十年间商品与服务的双向流动翻了6 倍多,在 <3年突破4亿美元。东盟与中国的发展与繁荣将高度取决于互惠互利经济伙伴关系的进一步发展,而双方无疑都充分意识到了这一点。< ">&n>a< p>a<p blog-="nk" iz-ng:ankrdx;-nk";eointer-fixed:1 a{f;eointer-24px;1 a{f;etive;width:1 2; loat:l rgb(102,1 a2,1 a2); d-posfamily: 'Micros"9p Ya&et', Ta"trewtsimsuni"lll>a<">&n snyle="nk" iz-ng:ankrdx;-nk";ed-posiize:1 en;}"lll>a  在政治和安全领域,东盟对中国的看法则不确定得多,对于中国在东南亚的战略意图尤其如此。由于担心中国会利用“反介入/区域拒止”平台来限制进入南中国海,并建立由北京决定的区域秩序,东盟沿海国家可能会指望华盛顿作为该地区国家防御以及更广泛防御的终极保证人。< ">&n>a< p>a<p blog-="nk" iz-ng:ankrdx;-nk";eointer-fixed:1 a{f;eointer-24px;1 a{f;etive;width:1 2; loat:l rgb(102,1 a2,1 a2); d-posfamily: 'Micros"9p Ya&et', Ta"trewtsimsuni"lll>a<">&n snyle="nk" iz-ng:ankrdx;-nk";ed-posiize:1 en;}"lll>a  北京的软实力对东盟的社会和文化一体化也有重大影响,不过这种影响的程度难以确定。一方面,中国官方强调和平发展和共同的亚洲价值观,这似乎与东盟自己致力于稳定和团结的承诺充分吻合。另一方面,中国努力在外交上将自己塑造成一个不具威胁的大国。< ">&n>a< p>a<p blog-="nk" iz-ng:ankrdx;-nk";eointer-fixed:1 a{f;eointer-24px;1 a{f;etive;width:1 2; loat:l rgb(102,1 a2,1 a2); d-posfamily: 'Micros"9p Ya&et', Ta"trewtsimsuni"lll>a<">&n snyle="nk" iz-ng:ankrdx;-nk";ed-posiize:1 en;}"lll>a  要取得成功,东盟共同体还需要得到东南亚地区另一个主要大国———美国的大力支持。< ">&n>a< p>a<p blog-="nk" iz-ng:ankrdx;-nk";eointer-fixed:1 a{f;eointer-24px;1 a{f;etive;width:1 2; loat:l rgb(102,1 a2,1 a2); d-posfamily: 'Micros"9p Ya&et', Ta"trewtsimsuni"lll>a<">&n snyle="nk" iz-ng:ankrdx;-nk";ed-posiize:1 en;}"lll>a  华盛顿有三大理由来支持建立东盟共同体。首先,经济一体化将有助于加强它与东盟之间不断发展且十分重要的双边贸易和投资关系。其次,推动更加多边化的安全合作方式,将直接有助于责任分摊。第三,一个全面一体化的东盟将有助于制衡中国和印度,确保南中国海重要航道的畅通,也使得美国代表所参与的东亚重要论坛变得更加对称。< ">&n>a< p>a<p blog-="nk" iz-ng:ankrdx;-nk";eointer-fixed:1 a{f;eointer-24px;1 a{f;etive;width:1 2; loat:l rgb(102,1 a2,1 a2); d-posfamily: 'Micros"9p Ya&et', Ta"trewtsimsuni"lll>a<">&n snyle="nk" iz-ng:ankrdx;-nk";ed-posiize:1 en;}"lll>a  美国可以有多种方式帮助支持东盟共同体的制度建设。在经济上,它可以通过增加《跨太平洋战略经济伙伴协定》(TPP)的东盟成员,来深化区域一体化和巩固贸易自由化。在政治和安全方面,美国可以建议开展支持军事互操作性的共同努力,为东盟国防部长会议当前的审议注入内容。最后,美国也可以运用软实力来推动旨在让整个东盟民间社会充分参与的项目。< ">&n>a< p>a<p blog-="nk" iz-ng:ankrdx;-nk";eointer-fixed:1 a{f;eointer-24px;1 a{f;etive;width:1 2; loat:l rgb(102,1 a2,1 a2); d-posfamily: 'Micros"9p Ya&et', Ta"trewtsimsuni"lll>a<">&n snyle="nk" iz-ng:ankrdx;-nk";ed-posiize:1 en;}"lll>a  <">&n snyle="nk" iz-ng:ankrdx;-nk";ed-poswei .l: 6:hi"lll>a虽然中国和美国都有能力影响东盟一体化进程,但能否巩固内部团结、实现“向心性”从而在亚洲新秩序中保持自己的重要地位,最终都将取决于东盟自己。< ">&n>a就这一点而言,不确定性仍然存在,因为在许多方面,东盟成员国仍继续奉行一致性、不干涉、非正式等古老原则,而这些原则已经形成了它们做事和经商的方式。< ">&n>a< p>a<p blog-="nk" iz-ng:ankrdx;-nk";eointer-fixed:1 a{f;eointer-24px;1 a{f;etive;width:1 2; loat:l rgb(102,1 a2,1 a2); d-posfamily: 'Micros"9p Ya&et', Ta"trewtsimsuni"lll>a<">&n snyle="nk" iz-ng:ankrdx;-nk";ed-position 1en;}"lll>a  如今已成立近60 年的东盟正处于一个重要关口,它要么会在未来的区域合作中处于主导地位,要么就会被边缘化,成为历史的残余。< ">&n>a< p>a<p blog-="nk" iz-ng:ankrdx;-nk";eointer-fixed:1 a{f;eointer-24px;1 a{f;etive;width:1 2; loat:l rgb(102,1 a2,1 a2); d-posfamily: 'Micros"9p Ya&et', Ta"trewtsimsuni"lll>a<">&n snyle="nk" iz-ng:ankrdx;-nk";ed-posiize:1 en;}"lll>a  (本文摘编自 美国《国家利益》双月刊,作者:兰德公司高级政治学家彼得·乔克。)< ">&n>a< p>a<wbr>ano" clasllllllllllllll&nb targf-myLikeIng)s likebtn p . pfixed"a lte$l">&nLike">"不 ">&n>an llllllllllll<">&nb targf-myLikeIng)s re3.cm&nRe3.cm&n>an llllllllll<">&nbsnyle="eValCode:abs"a lte$_">&nSyerRe3.cma targp24px rd pmperi> < llllllllllll<">&nb targp24px ghof.fc"><">&nb lte$_">&nRe3.cm0 ">&n>人 ">&n><">&nb targp24px a://e .ow bd"> 722fwrw-tgl1fwas-ow bed{"m &n><">&nb targp24px a://e .ow bd"> 621fwrw-tgl0fwas-ow bed{"m &n><">&nb targf.f7"> ">&n>| &n>anllllllllllllllll<">&nb targf-myLikeIng)s rd://ybtn p . pfixed"a lte$l">&nCns na转载 ">&n>anllllllllllllanllllllll1 clablog-="eValCode:abs"f targp&perysowbrsos2rsoctrrde ."a lte$l clRe3.cm 'ean lllll1/ clllo llll1 cla targrelnbwasogrpmperi>anllllllllll1h4o targsowbrsos2rsoctrf.f7 sttp历史上的今天s="4>anllllllllll1 cla targe .fztagr fix"> ">1/ clllollllllll1/ clllo llll1 clasnyle="eValCode:abs;visibpaity:"peden;7d7d7:0;&et .lb0;overodew:"peden;ro targf40 or-lan llllll1h4o targsowbrsos2rsoctrf.f7 sttp最近读者s="4>an llllll1 cla targe .fztagr fix"> ">1/ clllo llll1/ clllo llll1 clasnyle="eValCode:abs;visibpaity:"peden;7d7d7:0;&et .lb0;overodew:"peden;ro lteho> "l1/ clllo llll1/ clllo llll1 cla targp&per"a lteyodaofd_"nosnyle="_zoom:1o-l1/ clllo llllan llll1 cla targsh mped fidrosnyle="eValCode:abs-lan llllllll1af targadtivl" "style#an>&n snyle="ode .cfixed;&et .lb2ar{vtive;width:12ar{ve:solid; 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